The vanilla market - a new high price phase? | Mountains of the Moon™

The vanilla market – is another high price phase immanent?

The are strong signs that the vanilla market is about to change. During the last few years vanilla was traded at sometimes ridiculously low prices which have lead many farmers to abandon the crop.The outlook for vanilla in Uganda is indeed bleak: wherever one goes one finds remains of neglected vanilla plants. In many cases plantations simply have vanished and are now replaced by other, more lucrative crops. In some places this might be rice, in others cocoa. What it means in actual production figures still remains unclear but it will be well below the approximately 200 tons that were produced in 2005. It is quit possible that the new crop will be less than half.

Similar trends are reported independantly from each other from other regions of the world (Aust & Hachmann, Demeter Reports) and predictions are that by the end of 2010 we will see a supply deficit. Analysing previous vanilla cycles, this situation shold last 3-4 years. Thereafter growers will have responded to increased farm gate prices and supply will resume.